Hari imvugo ngo ‘iyo Amerika yitsamuye, isi yose irwara ibicurane’. Ese bigenda bite iyo Ubushinwa bwo bumerewe nabi?
Iki gihugu cya kabiri mu bukungu bunini ku isi, iwabo w’abaturage miliyari 1.4, ubu kiri mu bibazo byinshi – birimo gutera imbere gucumbagira, ubushomeri buri hejuru mu rubyiruko, n’ubucuruzi bw’imitungo buri mu kajagari.
Ubu umukuru wa Evergrande kompanyi ya leta y’ubwubatsi yashegeshwe n’imyenda, acungwa na polisi kandi ubucuruzi bw’imigabane y’iyo kompanyi bwabaye buhagaritswe ku isoko ry’imigabane.
Mu gihe ibi bibazo byongerera Beijing isereri, ibi bisobanuye iki ku isi yose? Kuri wowe cyangwa njyewe.
Abasesenguzi bamwe babona ko impungenge ko ibi bizateza akaga ku isi zikabirizwa. Gusa ibigo by’ubucuruzi mpuzamahanga binini, abakozi babyo hamwe n’abantu bafite imikoranire itaziguye n’Ubushinwa bashobora kugerwaho n’ingaruka.
Abunguka n’abahomba
"Niba Abashinwa bagabanyije ibyo barya, urugero bakigomwa ifunguro rya saa sita, ibi bigira ingaruka ku bukungu bw’isi?" biribazwa na Deborah Elms, umukuru w’ikigo Asian Trade Centre muri Singapore.
Ati: "Igisubizo ntabwo kimeze nk’uko watekereza, ariko mu by’ukuri bihungabanya ibigo bicungira ku isoko ry’Ubushinwa."
Kompanyi nini zibarirwa mu magana nka Apple, Volkswagen, na Burberry ibyo zinjiza byinshi biva ku isoko rinini ry’Ubushinwa kandi zizahungabanywa no kuba abaturage baho barimo kugabanya guhaha.
Ingaruka zikomeye zizagirwa n’ibihumbi by’aboherezayo ibicuruzwa hamwe n’abakozi bakorera izo kompanyi ahatandukanye ku isi.
Iyo utekereje ko Ubushinwa bugize hejuru ya kimwe cya gatatu cy’iterambere ry’ubukungu riboneka ku isi, wumva ko guhungabana kwabwo kose kugera na kure y’imbibi zabwo.
Ikigo cy’ibaruramyenda cyo muri Amerika kitwa Fitch kivuga ko mu kwezi gushize gucumbagira k’Ubushinwa kwariho "gutera igitutu ku iterambere rusange ku isi", kukanagabanya ibyitezwe mu iterambere ry’isi mu 2024.
Gusa, nk’uko bamwe mu nzobere mu bukungu babivuga, igitekerezo ko Ubushinwa ari moteri y’iterambere ry’isi kirakabirizwa.
"Mu mibare, yego, Ubushinwa bugize igice gisaga 40% cy’iterambere ry’isi", biravugwa na George Magnus, inzobere mu bukungu yo mu kigo China Centre cya University of Oxford.
Yongeraho ati: "Ariko se iryo terambere ryungura nde? Ubushinwa bwohereza ibintu byinshi cyane kurusha ibyo bwo butumiza, bityo uko Ubushinwa bwatera imbere cyangwa ntibutere imbere kose nibwo bireba cyane kurusha ahandi hasigaye ku Isi."
Gusa nanone, kuba Ubushinwa bwagabanya kugura ibicuruzwa na serivisi – cyangwa mu kubaka amazu – bisobanuye kugabanuka kw’isoko ry’ibicuruzwa n’ibikoresho by’ibanze.
Ubukungu bw’Ubushinwa bugize hejuru ya kimwe cya gatatu cy’iterambere ry’isi
Muri Kanama(8), iki gihugu cyatumije hanze hafi 9% munsi ho y’ibyo cyatumije umwaka ushize nk’icyo gihe – mu gihe cyari kikiri mu mategeko akaze arwanya Covid.
Roland Rajah umukuru wa Indo-Pacific Development Centre ya Lowy Institute i Sydney muri Australia ati: "Ibihugu byohereza ibintu byinshi hanze nka Australia, Brazil, n’ibihugu byinshi muri Africa bizashegeshwa cyane n’ibi."
Kugabanuka kw’isoko mu Bushinwa bisobanuye kandi ko ibiciro bizaguma cyangwa bikajya hasi. Ku muguzi w’ahandi ku isi ni ikintu yakwishimira ko kizagabanya izamuka ry’ibiciro.
Roland ati: "Ni inkuru nziza ku bantu n’ubucuruzi bugorwa n’izamuka ry’ibiciro". Urebeye hafi, umuguzi usanzwe ashobora kungukira ku gucumbagira k’Ubushinwa. Ariko mu gihe kirekire hari ibibazo ku bihugu biri mu nzira y’amajyambere.
Mu myaka igera ku 10 ishize, bibarwa ko Ubushinwa bwashoye hejuru ya tariyari y’amadorari mu mishinga y’ibikorwa remezo binini izwi nka Belt and Road Initiative.
Ibihugu birenga 150 ku isi byahawe n’Ubushinwa amafaranga n’ikoranabuhanga ngo byubake imihanda, ibibuga by’indege, ibyambu n’ibiraro. Kubwa Roland Rajah, ibyo Ubushinwa bwiyemeje muri iyi mishinga bishobora guhinduka niba ubukungu bukomeje guhura n’ibibazo iwabo.
Ati: "Ubu, inganda na banki zo mu Bushinwa ntabwo bizaba bigifite ubushobozi bwo kumena imari hirya no hino ku isi."
Mu ntangiriro z’uyu mwaka, ushinzwe ububanyi n’amahanga wa Amerika Antony Blinken (ibumoso) yasuye Ubushinwa ahura na Perezida Xi Jinping
Ubushinwa mu isi
Mu gihe bishoboka ko Ubushinwa bwagabanya ishoramari hanze, ntihaboneka neza uko ubukungu bwifashe imbere mu gihugu bizagira ingaruka kuri politike yabwo y’ububanyi n’amahanga.
Bamwe bavuga ko Ubushinwa bushegeshwe bushobora gushaka uko bunagura imibanire irimo ikibazo na Amerika.
Ibyemezo ku bucuruzi byafashwe na Amerika byagabanyije 25% ku byo Ubushinwa bwohereza ku isoko rya Amerika mu mezi atandatu ya mbere y’uyu mwaka, mu gihe minisitiri w’Ubucuruzi wa Amerika Gina Raimondo aherutse kwita Ubushinwa igihugu “kidashorekamo” ku bigo bimwe bya Amerika.
Gusa nta gihamya ko politike y’Ubushinwa kuri ibi irimo igenda yoroshya. Ubushinwa nabwo bukomeje kwihumura bufata ingamba zibuza gukorana na Amerika, kenshi buvuga ko ari “imyumvire y’intambara yo gukangana” y’ibihugu by’iburengerazuba, kandi bugafata gahunda yo gukomeza umubano n’ubutegetsi bw’ibihugu nk’Uburusiya cyangwa Siriya.
Ubwo kandi niko umurongo w’abategetsi bo muri Amerika n’Iburayi bakomeza kujya mu Bushinwa buri kwezi gukomeza ibiganiro ku bibazo biri mu bucuruzi hagati yabo. Ukuri ni uko abantu bacye cyane ari bo bazi neza ikiri hagati y’icyo Ubushinwa buvuga na politike yabwo.
Bimwe mu bitekerezo bihejeje inguni ku ngaruka z’ikibazo Ubushinwa burimo bivugwa n’indorerezi z’i Washington, ko kugwa k’ubukungu bw’Ubushinwa kwagira ingaruka ku buryo bufata/bwakemura ikibazo cya Taiwan, ikirwa Beijing ivuga ko ari ubutaka bwayo.
Mu ntangiriro z’uku kwezi, umudepite w’umurepubulikani Mike Gallagher – ukuriye komite y’inteko ku Bushinwa – yavuze ko ibibazo biri mu Bushinwa birimo guhindura kurushaho umutegetsi wabwo Xi Jinping "uwo utamenya icyo agiye gukora" kandi bishobora kumugeza ku "gukora ikintu cy’ubucucu cyane" kuri Taiwan.
Mu kwezi gushize, ibyo Ubushinwa bwohereza hanze byaragabanutse ku nshuro ya kane buri kwezi byikurikiranya
Roland Rajah avuga ko biboneka neza ko igihe cy’ "igitangaza cy’ubukungu bw’Ubushinwa cyarangiye", kandi ko icyo ishyaka rya gikomunisti ryabikoraho "gishobora kuzana ingaruka zikomeye mu by’ukuri".
Gusa nanone hari ahantu benshi batabona batyo ibyo, barimo na Perezida Joe Biden wa Amerika. Abajijwe niba ibyo bishoboka, yavuze ko Xi Jinping ubu "ahuze cyane" ahangana n’ibibazo by’ubukungu bw’igihugu.
Ati: "Sinibaza ko ibi bizatuma Ubushinwa butera Taiwan – ahubwo ni ikinyuranyo. Birashoboka ko ubu Ubushinwa budafite ubushobozi bwari bufite mbere."
Kwitega ikititezwe
Gusa, hari isomo amateka aduha, kwitega ikintu kititezwe.
Nkuko Deborah Elms abivuga, mbere ya 2008 abantu bacye nibo batekerezaga ko ibihombo mu bucuruzi no gukopa abantu amazu i Las Vegas muri Amerika byageza ku guhungabanya ubukungu bw’isi.
Ibyabaye mu 2008 byatumye inzobere zimwe zitinya icyo bita “kwandura (kw’indwara) mu bukungu”. Zikabona ko ibirimo kuba ku bukungu bw’Ubushinwa bishobora guhutaza no gutembagaza ubukungu bw’isi yose.
Gusa kuri George Magnus ihungabana ry’ubukungu mu isi mu 2008 bivuye muri Amerika ntiryasa n’uko ubu ibintu byifashe ku Bushinwa. Asobanura ko banki zo mu Bushinwa zifite imari ifatika kurusha uko muri Amerika byari byifashe icyo gihe.
Naho Deborah Elms ati: "Isoko ry’imitungo mu Bushinwa ntabwo rihuye cyane na banki zaho nk’uko byari byifashe igihe cy’igihombo muri Amerika. Ikindi kandi, ‘system’ y’imari y’Ubushinwa ntabwo ariyo iyoboye bihagije kuburyo yagira ingaruka ku isi nk’izo twabonye zivuye muri Amerika mu 2008."
Yongeraho ati: "Nk’isi, dufite uburyo dufatanyemo. Iyo imwe muri moteri nini z’iterambere itarimo gukora bigira ingaruka ku basigaye twese, kandi akenshi bitugiraho ingaruka mu buryo butari bwitezwe.
"Ntabwo bisobanuye ko mbona ko turimo kugana ku kwisubiramo kwa 2008, ariko icyo mvuga ni uko rimwe na rimwe ikiboneka nk’ikireba igihugu ubwacyo, gishobora kutugiraho ingaruka twese. Kandi mu buryo tutigeze dutekereza."
BBC
